What’s common between a Doosra and T20 odds?
Both can be hard to read.
Odds are expressed as numbers. Understanding and figuring them out requires some calculation. But you don’t need to be a maths genius to tackle them effectively.
Here’s a Simplified Explanation of What T20 Odds Denote, and How They Work
Odds represent the probability of an event to happen.
They are used as indications to highlight the favourites, the underdogs, the sort of payouts on offer and more.
Types of Odds
There are three types of odds which are generally listed by bookmakers.
- Decimal Odds
The simplest to read, these are just a representation of probability percentages.
You divide 100% by the probability of that outcome.
For example, if the probability of a win is 65%, it will give us a decimal odd of
100% / 65% = 1.54
- American Odds
These are represented by a positive or negative whole number.
For example, a bookmaker offers odds as +120 for team A and -140 for team B.
The plus sign indicates a team is an underdog. You need to bet 100 on team A to earn a profit of 120. And the negative sign shows that if you bet on team B, you need to bet 140 to earn a profit of 100.
- Fractional Odds
These odds are expressed as fractions.
For example, odds of (1.5)/ 1 indicate if you bet 1, a win will earn you 1.5
An Easy Formula
Consider an example;
The bookmaker offers odds of 1.54 for team A to win, odds of 5.55 for team B to win, and he could offer odds like 4.12 for a draw.
This indicates that team A is the favourite and team B are the underdogs.
Probability of a win = {one divided by odds(in decimal) } multiplied by 100 = (1 / odds) *100
That is,
Probability of team A beating team B is (1 /1.54)*100 = 65%
Probability of team B beating team A is (1 /5.55)*100 =18%
Probability of a draw is (1 /4.12)*100=24%
You’ll realise that the total probability percentage exceeds 100%
This happens as the bookmaker by default adds his margins– which generally hover between 5% to 7%.
What you Earn
If you bet INR 10 on team A and win, your earnings will be
10*1.54 = 15.4
That is a profit of INR 5.4.
If you bet INR 10 on team B and win, your earnings will be
10*5.55= 55.5
That is a profit of INR 45.5.
If you bet on a draw and win, your earnings will be
10*4.12= 41.2
That is a profit of INR 31.2.
This highlights how lucrative profit margins are established by bookmakers to encourage some bettors away from the favourites. Bookmakers try to establish a feasible balance between the for-bets and the against-bets by varying odds.
Why do Odds Vary?
To make a profit, and to mitigate losses, the bookmaker needs to have action on both sides of the bet.
Consider this example; the bookmaker posts odds of -140 on team A, and odds of +120 on team B.
Mr X wagers INR 140 on team A, and Mr Y wagers INR 100 on team B.
If Mr X wins, he’ll receive INR 100 as profit. If Mr Y wins, he’ll receive INR 120 as profit.
Let’s say Mr Y wins. The bookmaker will take Mr X’s principal amount of INR 140, pay INR 120 profit to Mr Y, and manage to save INR 20 for himself.
Let’s say Mr X wins. The bookmaker will now take the principal amount of INR 100 from Mr Y and give it to Mr X. This leaves the bookie with no profit. In case of heavy action, the bookmaker might have to pay up from his account. To discourage such instances, the bookmaker will try and adjust the odds in his favour.
Why do Odds Matter?
Finding the best odds can increase your payouts, and minimise your losings.
Let’s say Mr X and Mr Y have been on a roll with both having a win percentage of 65%. Mr X goes to his regular bettor who gives him odds of 1.9. Mr Y does some research and finds odds of 2, for the same bets. If each of them makes 1000 bets a year, it means they both win 650 bets, and lose 350 bets respectively. If they bet INR100 each time, at the end of the year their earnings would look like
Mr. X ={ (650*1.9) – 350 }*100 = INR 88500
Mr. Y ={ (650*2) – 350}*100 =INR 95000
Hence Mr Y’s earnings are INR 6500 more than Mr X, just because he played it smarter.
These tips to help you understand T20 odds let you find the best possible odds, and make more informed decisions about the value of your bets. Do not shy away from research and play to your strengths. Good luck, punter!